According to the analysis of professional meteorological researchers, a strong cold wave will sweep across most of my country in the near future. This cold wave will be the strongest this winter. Its fierce cooling and low temperature are the strongest this year; not only is it the strongest this year, but it can be ranked first in the cold wave of the new century.

It is said that this cold wave is a BOSS-level big cold wave, which will start to exert force on the 20th, slowly penetrate in the early stage, and then go south in a large amount in the later stage. In addition to Xinjiang, the temperature is almost everywhere in the country to record lows, and snowflakes are likely to drift into Taipei, Guangxi, Yunnan, and even Vietnam.

Severe weather is coming, and if the cold wave brings widespread snowfall, transportation will be affected, and the already tight power plant inventory will be even more serious. Port transportation will also be affected. The originally low port inventory will continue to continue, and the probability of rising spot market prices will increase in the later period.

An employee of a manufacturer at the port reported that he felt that the spot market was unlikely to cut prices recently, and they will hold a meeting next week to study the price and see what the leaders decide. Some of our ships are under pressure until next month, and we have already controlled the ship, and the price can only go up and can't go down.

The inventory of the seven northern ports was 11.47 million tons on January 1, and 10.97 million tons on January 15, down 14.7% from December 15 (12.86 million tons).

As of January 18, the stocks of ports around the Bohai Sea were 3.525 million tons (+13.5) at Qinhuangdao Port, 1.3 million tons (+12) at Caofeidian Port, 1.85 million tons at Jingtang Port (-41), and 1.85 million tons at Jingtang Port (-41). Port 2.229 million tons (-15.2), Huanghua Port 1.83 million tons (+22). Among them, the inventory of Qinhuangdao Port and Huanghua Port increased mainly due to the closure of shipping, while the inventory of Jingtang Port and Tianjin Port decreased significantly.

Tianjin Port and Huanghua Port, which have been severely under pressure for a long time, have not improved. As of January 18, there were 103 ships anchored at Huanghua Port, and the time for ships to stay in the port was still 4-5 days.

In response to the recent situation that a large number of ships have been stranded in ports and other goods, Shenhua Group has issued policies to limit the situation of excessive haulage. The regulations show that downstream users must board the ship in strict accordance with the monthly plan in January, and the upload volume in the whole month shall not exceed 115% of the monthly plan volume. Shenhua Group also encouraged downstream users to increase their contract volume in 2016.

Despite the recent decline in ocean freight rates, downstream power plants have not dared to neglect the replenishment.

An employee of a power plant said that the power plant has been in stock for 15 days, and now there are several ships going to the northern port, so you should feel at ease during the New Year. There are too many Huanghua ships. Go to Qinhuangdao, Tianjin, and Jinzhou ports to load goods from Shenhua and Yitai. The price of 5,500 kcal of coal is expensive, so don’t. The suitable price of 5000 kcal coal is 330 yuan, S0.4. There is also a shortage of goods along the Yangtze River, and there is also a shortage of goods in the northern port. It is estimated that the price will rise later.

But there are also traders and producers who expressed doubts about the later spot price hike.

A trader in the northern port said that the spot price is basically stable, and the price of 5500 kcal coal S0.8 is 365 yuan. The supply of goods is very short, and they will not adjust the price of large groups at present.

Another manufacturer said that the stock has been out of stock recently, and the Huanghua port is seriously under pressure. However, the demand on the downstream side is general, and Zhudian has also lowered the price, so the price may not be able to rise.

In the context of relatively weak industrial demand, domestic electricity demand has become the key. This super cold wave is going south, with a great intensity and a wide range, which may bring a series of reactions.

In the later period, as the temperature continues to drop, it is expected that the major power plants in the south will increase the amount of replenishment, and the port market may usher in a wave of small-scale price increases.

Article source: Coal Resources Network